The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus seems to be leveling off in recent days as Gov. Brad Little weighs how to open Idaho’s economy back up. But scientists say that could take longer than you think.
If you’ve been reading or listening to the news about coronavirus, you’ve probably heard this advice over and over again.
“The best move right now is just to do everything that we possibly can to slow it down,” said Katelyn Gostic, a postdoc research fellow at University of Chicago.
The phrase you’ve probably heard is “flattening the curve.” That means you want fewer people to come down with COVID-19 all at once, and instead, spread it out over months to avoid overloading hospitals.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Idaho had confirmed 1,453 cases with 33 deaths, according to the state department of health and welfare.
Gostic said scientists are just now starting to get reliable data they can use to recommend how states like Idaho can safely open back up.
The information about the number of confirmed cases can be misleading, she said, since the U.S. still doesn’t offer widespread testing for COVID-19. Data on deaths are more reliable, but it has a built-in lag period since it can take up to two weeks for people to develop symptoms after contracting the virus.
If you roll back restrictions on gatherings and businesses too early, Gostic said, you’re back to square one.
“You still have a population that’s full of susceptible people and if you still have sparks on the ground, you’re staring at the risk of another flare up, essentially.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, America's top infectious disease expert, told the Associated Press Tuesday that the U.S. isn't ready for these restrictions to be lifted just yet. Instead, those should be eased on a "rolling" basis depending on which parts of the country someone lives in.
“I’ll guarantee you, once you start pulling back there will be infections. It’s how you deal with the infections that’s going count,” Fauci told the AP.
With more data coming in, Gostic expects scientists to release their guidance on reopening the economy within a few weeks.
Gov. Brad Little’s (R) initial stay-at-home order expires Wednesday night. He will announce his next steps at 11 a.m. that morning.
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