Updated February 6, 2026 at 10:41 AM MST
CARACAS, Venezuela — At a military parade in Caracas, hundreds of soldiers march past acting President Delcy Rodríguez, to swear their allegiance to the nation's new ruler.
At one point in the ceremony, which included several military bands, General Vladimir Padrino, the head of Venezuela's armed forces approaches Rodriguez.
He hands her a sword and a golden baton, symbols of her new status as the nation's commander in chief.
"This baton is in good hands now," Padrino says.
One month after the U.S removed Nicolas Maduro in a pre-dawn raid on Caracas, former Vice President Rodríguez has moved quickly to consolidate power.
Depicting herself as a leader who is willing to work with Washington, she has made a handful of economic and political concessions that suggest a change in course for the authoritarian country — but lasting reforms remain far from certain.
Rodríguez signed a bill last week that gives foreign companies greater rights over Venezuela's oil. She has liberated hundreds of dissidents who were imprisoned on charges of treason under Maduro's rule. An amnesty law that could secure the freedom of more prisoners is currently making its way through Venezuela's legislature.
Fredy Guevara, a Venezuelan opposition leader who was forced into exile five years ago, says U.S.military pressure has a lot to do with these choices.
"I think the fear of what happened to Maduro happening to them is making them make some moves," said Guevara, who is now based in Boston. "They know they are no longer untouchable."
Venezuela continues to be an authoritarian state — where the media is censored, and dissidents can be easily jailed.
Guevara says that, like many Venezuelans, he wants new elections. But he warns that major reforms must come first — starting with the nation's courts, which are dominated by judges that follow the ruling party's orders.
"We need to make some changes in the structure of power that block their capabilities to persecute people," Guevara said. "That means they don't control the high courts, the prosecutor's office or the electoral board."
But if reforms move too fast powerful figures inside the ruling socialist party could push back. And they control armed gangs and parts of the military.
"If you put a foot wrong you end up with violent chaos, because people will resist" said Phil Gunson, a Caracas based analyst at the International Crisis Group.
He said that members of the ruling party will still need to be given assurances that they will not be persecuted if the judicial system is reformed, or if another party is voted into office.
"For many of them at an individual level this is an existential issue, they genuinely feel that if they lost power they will end up in jail," Gunson said.
For the moment, acting President Rodríguez has been slow walking political reforms, like the release of prisoners.
And she has not talked about new elections or changes to Venezuela's judiciary.
Gunson said Rodríguez is performing "a very difficult balancing act" between meeting reform demands from Washington and managing pressure from her own supporters— both civilian and military — who "definitely don't want to see a political opening."
James Story, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela who served under both the first Trump and Biden administrations, said Rodríguez is moving as slowly as possible on political reforms, betting that Washington's focus will fade.
Her strategy, Story said, appears to be to "do just enough to make it look as if they're complying," while waiting to see whether U.S. midterm elections weaken President Trump's ability to exert pressure on Venezuela.
Story said the United States will need to maintain the threat of military pressure if it wants to see further reforms. He added that Washington should also demand the disbandment of the armed urban gangs known as colectivos, which control some neighborhoods and have been used to intimidate opposition activists.
"Right now is when you make the hard asks," Story said.
One reason the U.S. might want to keep up its effort to ensure democratic reforms in Venezuela, is to make it a more attractive place for oil companies, said Raul Stolk, a former oil industry lawyer who now runs the Caracas Chronicles website.
To invest in Venezuela, "these companies are going to be pushing for making sure the legal system works, that there is transparency, that they are shielded from corrupt courts, and that there is political peace in the country" Stolk said.
Many in the Venezuelan opposition, like Guevara, hope that the U.S. opts for a democratic transition, instead of working indefinitely with Rodriguez and her allies.
Guevara argues that democracy would serve both countries — curbing migration and keeping Venezuela from aligning with rivals like Russia or Iran.
He is hoping that the Trump administration also sees things this way.
"I think that for the first time in our lives there's a chance that we may have a peaceful negotiation that will lead to a democratic transition," Guevara said. "Of course it's a weird case because it's a negotiation by coercion."
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