STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Negotiators from the United States and Iran hold talks tomorrow in Geneva, Switzerland. The U.S. has been threatening war over a list of demands that includes Iran's nuclear program. Vali Nasr is following all of this. He's at Johns Hopkins University and is a longtime scholar of Iran and its region - has been a guest many times here. Vali, welcome back.
VALI NASR: Thank you. Good to be with you.
INSKEEP: OK, from the outside, Iran seems pretty weak right now. They got pounded last year by Israel and the United States. They're facing protests at home, which they had to very violently repress. But do you believe that Iranian leaders think they are in a weak position?
NASR: Yes, I think they do think they're in a weak position, not only because they were attacked militarily and their nuclear program was damaged, but also because the protest that we witnessed in Iran is also putting a tremendous amount of domestic pressure on them. So they are in a vulnerable position.
INSKEEP: Does that mean that they would be willing to make concessions or make an agreement with the United States?
NASR: Yes, they would be willing to make concessions, but I don't think they want to surrender. So it depends on what the United States is asking. But also, I think they are distrustful of the United States. They worry that they may get attacked anyways, whether they cut a deal, whether they negotiate or not. And I think they're approaching the talks with a great deal of trepidation.
INSKEEP: Oh, this is very interesting. And I'm thinking about the scope of a deal. The Iranians seem to be willing to allow some limitations on their nuclear program, but the United States wants more - much, much more than that.
NASR: That's true. If the United States asked for total surrender, it would be very difficult for Iran to agree to that. And, of course, one has to say, what is the United States offering in return for that degree of concession? But on top of it, I think the Iranians are looking for a language that allows both sides to claim victory at the table.
INSKEEP: I want to follow up on something we heard on this program last week. We spoke with Mark Dubowitz, who was openly an advocate of war. He's with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. And I pointed out to him that Iran's neighbors - Persian Gulf countries - seem really not to want this war 'cause they don't want to get attacked. They've been urging talks led by the United States. And Dubowitz pointed out - he said, well, they say different things publicly and privately. And I understand some private remarks that I think he's referring to. But do you think the Persian Gulf neighbors of Iran would welcome war?
NASR: No, I don't think they'd welcome war because they're not confident that the United States can attack Iran in a way that, A, Iran would not retaliate, and secondly, that it would not become a much more bigger, larger war that would damage their economic prospects going forward. It is not out of love of Iran that they are resisting war. It is out of pure self-interest and the fact that the United States is not able to show them credibly that it can protect the Gulf countries from the blowback from war.
INSKEEP: What is the worst-case scenario here?
NASR: I mean, the worst-case scenario is that - A, that the United States would get entangled in a long-term war. That - you know, the U.S. can start wars, can inflict a great deal of damage, but it cannot control how the wars unfold. And we can also have a collapse of the state in Iran in a country of 95 million with advanced missiles, with nuclear material. Chaos could look degrees larger and more dangerous than what we witnessed in Iraq or Syria.
INSKEEP: Some people, including the outside opposition, would very much like a collapse of the government in Iran. Are you saying that may not be as desirable an outcome as it seems?
NASR: Well, they're looking for a collapse of the government that is immediately replaced by an open, pro-Western democratic government, but that's not likely to happen. When we're talking about collapse of government, we're talking about scenarios like we witnessed in Iraq after U.S. invasion, Syria or Libya, not a smooth transition to a new order.
INSKEEP: OK. Vali Nasr, we'll continue following your analysis and continue following the news from Geneva this week, where U.S. and Iranian negotiators will be in the same city, although we do not know if they will talk directly. Vali, thanks so much.
NASR: Thank you.
INSKEEP: He's at Johns Hopkins University and also the Center for Strategic International Studies.
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