SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
The war the U.S. and Israel are waging on Iran is entering its third week. We have heard several versions of what President Trump would consider to be victory. What about Israel? We're joined now by Chuck Freilich. He served as Israel's deputy national security adviser and now teaches at both Columbia and Tel Aviv University. Mr. Freilich, thanks for being with us.
CHUCK FREILICH: Thanks for having me.
SIMON: Just how aligned are the U.S. and Israel strategically? Do they have the same vision of victory?
FREILICH: Well, I think the war started with essentially a complete confluence of objectives. And first and foremost, there was a hope that the war would lead to regime change, and of course, significantly - this was sort of a minimum objective - significantly degrading Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities and further weakening its ability to protect its influence around the region to support the proxies. I think there's some difference today, certainly on the emphasis on the regime change aspect. Israel, I think, is more committed to that objective than the U.S. But in the end, this will come down to what the president decides, and I believe that Israel will go along with it.
SIMON: A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds the majority of Americans surveyed are against the war. What's the feeling in Israel?
FREILICH: Well, for Israel, it's very different. For Israel, this is an existential war, which has been in the making for some decades. And so you see, basically across the board, support in Israel from left to right. There's a shared support for all of the objectives that I mentioned before. That support, I believe, will stay there for as long as people believe that there is a credible possibility of a successful outcome. If that changes, we'll see support diminish.
SIMON: Well, would that raise the possibility that the U.S. might want to call an end to actions against Iran at a time Israel would like to continue them because they're short of their goals?
FREILICH: Yes, that's true. And again, for the U.S., I believe this is a major foreign policy issue, but it is certainly not existential. And for Israel, it is. So there can be a difference in that situation.
SIMON: You have examined Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza and criticized the lack of a plan afterwards. Do you believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government has a plan on the boards for post-war Iran?
FREILICH: Well, I think there was significant - first of all, the military operation itself, I think, has been nothing short of brilliant so far. And we've seen both countries, and especially Israel, trying to methodically destroy the instruments of regime suppression. So attacking the Revolutionary Guards, the besieged police stations throughout the country, trying to create an opening for the people to come back out on the streets. Whether there's a strategy beyond that is questionable.
SIMON: Well, what do you make of, for example, the massive demonstration that the world saw yesterday in Tehran, which was favoring the government, of course?
FREILICH: Right. We know that something like 20% of the Iranian public does still support the regime, and the remainder do not want various shades of change. But unsurprisingly, the regime rallied that percentage of the public that does support it to put on a big show. We couldn't expect anything else.
SIMON: If you were advising the Israeli government right now, what might you advise them, taking into account regional insecurity, a new supreme leader, what's happening to the global oil market as a result of the war?
FREILICH: Well, I think that if one resorts to military force, and that's most certainly not always the appropriate way to go, but if you do so, you have to play to win and - or just declare victory at some point, decide that you've achieved sufficient objectives. But if that's not the case - and I think there is still a basis for trying to play to win - the U.S. and Israel will have to decide to up the ante and escalate in the next few days. I think we saw a first indication of that last night with the attack on Kharg Island. But that was just on the island's defenses, I understand, not on the actual oil infrastructure. At the moment, there's a unacceptable situation in which Iran has closed the Straits of Hormuz to international shipping, but Iranian oil exports are continuing through the straits and have even increased. So the first thing that has to be done is that the straits have to be closed off to Iran or opened again for everyone.
SIMON: Former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich. Thanks so much.
FREILICH: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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