The state of Idaho has a singular goal when it comes to education. Everyone is pulling for it, from the State Board to the Governor’s Task Force for Improving Education. It’s that 60 percent of Idahoans between 25 and 34-years-old will have a post-secondary degree or certificate by 2020.
The number is based on a 1010 Georgetown University study. Researchers there actually predict that 61 percent of Idaho jobs will require education beyond high school by 2018. You might have heard that 61 percent figure on radio and TV campaigns from the J.A. and Katherine Albertson Foundation. That includes underwriting messages on KBSX. But the number contradicts the state’s own calculations of the amount of training Idaho’s workforce will require.
“Roughly 30 percent of all jobs require an associate’s degree or greater," says Bob Uhlenkott. He's chief research officer for Idaho’s Department of Labor. He says his estimate is so different - only half of Georgetown’s figure - because the predictions were made using different methodology.
A good example is how each study looks at retail jobs. Most people in retail only have a high school diploma. But a certain percentage have bachelor’s degrees. So, if retail jobs were to double in the next few years, Uhlenkott wouldn’t double the number of bachelor’s degrees the state would need.
“Because we know it doesn’t take a bachelor’s degree to work in retail,” he says.
But at Georgetown, researchers do think some retail workers need higher education. Tony Carnevale directs the university’s Center on Education and the Workforce.
“The reason they do is they’re selling machines, computers and other technical products,” Carnevale says. “Many of them require a degree in order to be expert on the kinds of machinery they’re selling.”
Carnevale’s report says in five years, 16,000 Idaho sales jobs will require a bachelor’s degree. The Labor Department’s number is zero.
Bob Uhlenkott admits his formula - required by the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics - amounts to a bare minimum estimate. In fact, if state educators used his numbers, Idaho would already be meeting the anticipated demand for workers with higher education. But Uhlenkott sees Georgetown’s predictions as a maximum estimate. He thinks the actual number is probably somewhere in the middle.
Idaho’s state Board of Education has chosen to go with the Georgetown predictions. Board executive director Mike Rush says the methodology of the two studies is so different; they shouldn’t be compared to each other.
“But I do think the Georgetown data is more predictive of where we want to be as a state,” Rush says.
Rush calls having 60 percent of young workers get degrees or certificates an "aspirational" goal. He says it’s about positioning Idaho to attract more high skill, high pay jobs.
“I will guarantee you that if we don’t educate our people then we will attract businesses that don’t need educated people,” Rush says. “And that will be the kind of state we inherit.”
But if the figure behind the goal is a high estimate there’s a chance Idaho could produce more people with degrees and certificates than available jobs. Bob Uhlenkott says that would be OK.
“It’s almost like having a good bench for an NBA team,” Uhlenkott says. “When you get to playoff time you’re going to get beaten up if you don’t have folks on the bench. We need to educate not just the exact amount that we need to fit the jobs of the future, but we need to educate more of those.”
Uhlenkott says even though the Georgetown numbers may be high, he doesn’t disagree with state educators' choice to use them instead of his. He thinks either prediction is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and he’d rather see the state produce an overly educated workforce than be satisfied with the status quo.
Copyright 2013 Boise State Public Radio