BOISE, ID – Polls predict a tight race heading into South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary Saturday. The southern state has correctly picked the eventual GOP nominee since 1980. Idaho has played less of a role in selecting a GOP presidential candidate. But this year is different. That’s because the GOP caucus happens in March along with nine other states. That caucus will likely have an impact on Idaho state elections.
In Idaho, the GOP presidential nomination contest kicked off two weeks ago. That’s when Ron Paul won a straw poll held at a state party fundraiser.
Idaho GOP Straw Poll Sound: “Ron Paul! Ron Paul! Ron Paul!”
Straw polls don’t predict official outcomes but Paul supporters filed paperwork that night to put their candidate on the Republican caucus ballot. The next week, Mitt Romney followers led by U.S. Senator Jim Risch and Governor Butch Otter delivered that campaign’s caucus application to Idaho GOP chairman Norm Semanko.
Governor Butch Otter: “I’ll deliver his application.”
Norm Semanko: “Thank you Governor.”
U.S. Senator Jim Risch: “Norm, I have the filing fee of $2,000 I’m presenting to you on behalf of the next President of the United States.”
Semanko: “Thank you Senator.”
Last year, Idaho Republicans decided to move their May primary up to a March caucus for presidential nominations. Canyon County Party Chairman and State Senator John McGee hopes this change will draw attention to Idaho.
State Senator John McGee: “This is really one of the first times the state of Idaho is going to have a major voice, perhaps, in choosing who the nominee for the Republican Party is going to be for President.”
That’s because Idaho’s GOP presidential caucus is part of Super Tuesday on March 6th. The state joins nine others in picking a nominee. The party faithful believes the right candidate could woo all of Idaho’s 32 caucus delegates. Boise State University Political Science Professor Gary Moncrief says the move to an earlier date was a smart one.
Gary Moncrief: “Clearly there will not be a numerical winner by March 6th because there haven’t been enough states to actually allocate enough delegates to win.”
It takes a majority of more than 2,000 delegates to win the Republican nomination. Only 345 will have been allocated before Super Tuesday. Currently, no Republican presidential candidate has an official campaign office in Idaho. Romney supporters have a steering committee with many of Idaho’s Republican leaders, including the Governor. Paul followers hold TV watch parties for GOP debates, primaries, and caucuses. Moncrief says Romney and Paul are the two leading Republican candidates in Idaho.
Gary Moncrief: “I think Romney will do very well in the East, you know, part of that is, it’s religious based. Paul will do very well in Northern Idaho which seems to be where the real strength of the Tea Party is. And they’ll fight it out in the Southwest part of the state, Canyon County – Ada County area, will be, I think, where the real competition is between the two.”
Moncrief says the March caucus will have a ripple effect on state elections. That’s because the GOP caucus will draw people out to nominate a President. But the May primary will only focus on state elections. That historically draws fewer voters. That could mean May could look like an off-year for Republicans according to Moncrief.
Gary Moncrief: “You tend to have a much lower participation and the people that do vote tend to be the kind of true believers, you know, the strong partisans.”
That’s reinforced by the GOP choice to close the primary to only registered Republicans. Meanwhile, there’s less than seven weeks before Idaho Republicans will gather in caucuses in each county to argue for their choice for President.
Copyright 2012 Boise State Public Radio