Fall and winter across the northwestern U.S. is in for a strong El Niño season, including much of Idaho, according to the latest National Weather Service predictions.
“We’re still going to get snow, we’re still going to get cold, but the frequency of the winter impacts is going to be less than what we see in a normal winter,” said Alex Lukinbeal, a meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Lukinbeal looked at climate history for Boise, Lewiston and Pocatello in El Niño analog years: 1997, 2015 and 2023.
“The odds are definitely stacked that it’s going to be warmer, at least one to three degrees warmer than a normal type of winter,” he said.
Lukinbeal explained how the snowpack in the low to mid elevations may struggle in the coming months, with lower elevations more likely to get less snow and more rain.
“The El Niño influences are most felt in northern Idaho, whereas southern Idaho tends to be more of a toss up,” he said, adding that Idaho’s southern mountain ranges sometimes get more snowpack where others don’t fare as well.
“I think you’re going to see a little more uncertainty as far as how the snow is going to really pile up in southern Idaho, but in northern Idaho, it’s a higher chance of seeing those above normal temperatures and less snowpack overall,” said Lukinbeal.
The main takeaway, he said, is to be prepared for winter weather.
“Get your travel emergency kits ready, your vehicles – we’re still going to have substantial impacts throughout the winter,” he said, but emphasized that the lower elevations should expect warmer and milder winter weather.
Forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization predict a strong El Niño season through February 2027, shifting rainfall and temperatures worldwide and fueling extreme weather.