MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
As we've mentioned, President Trump has hardened his tone on Vladimir Putin in recent days, but he has praised the Russian leader many times in the past. In 2022, after his first term, Trump called Putin's invasion of Ukraine genius. Before he was elected, President Trump described the authoritarian leader as smart and tough. So what does Trump's apparent change of tone suggest about future U.S. policy toward Russia?
I've called William Taylor to ask him about this. He served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He's currently with the Atlantic Council, and he's actually in Ukraine at the moment, in Odesa. Ambassador, welcome back to the program. Thanks for joining us.
WILLIAM TAYLOR: Michel, thank you very much for having me.
MARTIN: First, what do you make of President Trump's recent change in tone when talking about Vladimir Putin?
TAYLOR: So clearly, President Trump's getting irritated, rightly so, frustrated, rightly so, with Putin's continued bombardment of Ukraine, even while Putin says he's willing to have conversations. So I'm glad to see that President Trump is figuring out President Putin. He's figuring out that President Putin is not serious about these negotiations, not serious about ceasefires, not serious about peace. So we have seen this - as you say, the shift in tone in some of these comments, but we have not seen any action yet. And that's what's going to - that's what it's going to take.
MARTIN: So after Trump posted on social media that Putin has gone "crazy" and that he's "playing with fire" - so quoting him now - Russia proposed holding a second round of peace talks with Ukraine next week. But at the last round of talks, Putin ducked a challenge from the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to meet, and he actually sent a lower-level delegation. So what do you make of this latest offer? Does this strike you as genuine?
TAYLOR: It doesn't strike me as genuine. You're exactly right. There's a pattern where the Russians try to divert the idea of sanctions, try to avert the idea that the Europeans, Ukrainians and Americans have agreed on a ceasefire and will put sanctions on Russia if they don't show up. So he tried this again. He suggested these negotiations in Istanbul two weeks ago. And exactly as you say, then President Zelenskyy showed up. President Trump even said he would be willing to show up, and Putin sends this low-level delegation, and then doing the same thing now. Indications that they're - that President Trump is really getting ready to do something, and the Kremlin says, well, let's have more conversations, and we're ready to do this. So this is a pattern. They're not serious, Michel.
MARTIN: So, you know, Putin has held top positions of power in Russia for more than a quarter century. He could be in power for years to come. But Trump has been a very Russia-friendly president overall, and I'm wondering how that timing factors into Putin's thinking. I mean, given especially, as we've seen, that President Trump sometimes gets - you know, he gets frustrated. He's sort of suggested he might sort of walk away from the whole thing. So I'm just wondering how this timing works into the way Putin is thinking about this.
TAYLOR: Putin's sense of timing is it's on his side. He thinks he can wait us out. He thinks he can wait President Trump out. He thinks he can wait the Americans out. He thinks he can even wait the Europeans out. I can't believe he thinks he can wait the Ukrainians out because they have demonstrated that they'll never stop fighting. But President Putin thinks time's on his side. And so unless there's a change, unless there's a confrontation, unless we provide more weapons to the Ukrainians or provide more - put more sanctions onto Russia, serious sanctions that will have an effect on its economy, unless that happens, Putin's going to continue to try to wait us out.
MARTIN: But, you know, at the same time, European countries combined provided more aid overall, both financial and military, to Ukraine than to the U.S. - than the U.S. has, for example. So how does that factor into what you think is happening now?
TAYLOR: That's an important factor. It's an important recognition that the Europeans, who are much closer to the threat that Russia poses, are stepping up. They're stepping up in military terms. You talked about how the Germans now are about to provide at least the technology, if not the actual weapons, for long-range strikes. The Germans are increasing the amount of money they're putting in. The Europeans are stepping up. The European members of NATO are putting in more. So the Europeans are really stepping up. The Ukrainians, actually, Michel, are providing - they provide 40% of the weapons that are now used in the battle come from Ukrainian sources. So that's important. The Americans do provide critical materials and capabilities, but the Europeans and the Ukrainians are stepping up their fight.
MARTIN: So before we let you go, what do you think is at stake for President Trump if he does not make progress on a ceasefire in Ukraine?
TAYLOR: This is a really important question. If President Trump allows President Putin to outplay him, to continue to step him along, as President Trump has said, and if President Putin kind of wins this game that he seems to be playing, the stringing him along, then that will be a major defeat for the United States, a major defeat for international security, but a major defeat for President Trump. Much has been made of the problems - lots of the problems that the disaster in Afghanistan presented to President Biden. If President Trump allows Putin to win, to outplay him, that will be his Afghanistan.
MARTIN: William Taylor served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine under President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama. He's now a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. Ambassador Taylor, thank you so much for joining us.
TAYLOR: Thank you, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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