MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
For more on possible outcomes of President Trump's Asia trip, Kurt Campbell joins me now. He was a deputy secretary of state during the Biden administration. He cofounded and chairs The Asia Group, which advises companies working in the region. Good morning. Thanks so much for joining us.
KURT CAMPBELL: Good morning, Michel. It's great to be with you. Thanks.
MARTIN: So as we just heard from Mara, a lot of deals were at stake during this trip. Many countries in the region have been unhappy about how the Trump administration has handled their partnerships. You know, you're out of government now, but you're still working on Asia issues. Does this matter? Is there any indication that this unhappiness is going to - is there going to be any pushback to the president's demands?
CAMPBELL: Well, we just heard a great report about how China is pushing back, but many of these other countries are in a more delicate position. I think almost all the countries in Asia want the United States to remain engaged. So this trip has brought with it some anticipation, but a lot of apprehension because clearly President Trump's favorite tool dealing with a lot of these countries in trade terms is coercion. And so they all want to try to get the best possible deal so that they can keep the United States around but keep their economies humming.
MARTIN: You know, the president attended the signing of a peace treaty between Thailand and Cambodia yesterday. The two countries agreed to a ceasefire following a border dispute after Trump threatened them with higher tariffs. Does this deal increase his sway in the region? Does it foretell anything about how he might function going forward?
CAMPBELL: Well, you know, Michel, this is kind of a recreation. This was a deal that was struck last year. The tensions remain. I think the president does want to highlight his peacemaking abilities. And so there is a theatrical dimension to this trip, and that was on full display there and also when he was dancing at the airport when he arrived.
MARTIN: OK, so the highlight of the president's trip will undoubtedly be his meeting with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. It's set for later this week. What are you expecting to come out of these talks?
CAMPBELL: Well, you know, I think what Mara laid out is exactly right. But I think if you look behind this idea of a trade truce, I think you see a couple of dynamics at play. I believe what the president wants in the short term is a trade deal that will boost largely agricultural products, ranch products, perhaps airplanes, in the short term to Beijing. I think he wants that for political purposes. Those parts of the country, you know, have been hurt, particularly folks that produce some agricultural stuff.
And I think at the same time, the Chinese want restrictions lifted on certain key technologies. And I think, as you've heard, many people are concerned that that's not a good deal for us, and that those areas, AI chips, semiconductor capabilities, those are our high card. And the president is actually, I think, contemplating trading that away for short-term political benefits that might be good for him in next year's election.
MARTIN: You've written that the U.S. foreign policy establishment has developed a tendency to underestimate China's strengths at its own risk. Do you think that President Trump is following that pattern?
CAMPBELL: You know, I think actually both countries tend to see the other as weaker. I think China looks at us as in decline. I actually think that's quite dangerous. But I think one of the things that has become quite clear over the course of the last couple of months, China's prepared to use its leverage with rare magnets, other kinds of things to make clear that they're not going to lay down for the United States. I think President Xi has recognized, during the first Trump presidency, China was very much off-balance. This time around, they have mixed sort of hard and soft approaches. They've been respectful to the president, but they've played hardball in negotiations. And they're going to really extract a heavy price if that's what the president wants.
MARTIN: Before we let you go, we have about a minute left. President Trump has suggested he might extend his trip to meet with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, if Kim agrees. If this does happen, what do you think might come out of such a meeting?
CAMPBELL: Look, you know, the circumstances have changed since the meetings in the first term. President Trump clearly has a fascination with these different leaders from Russia, China, and North Korea. North Korea is now fully aligned with both Russia and China. It has troops fighting in Russia. They've indicated that they have really not that much interest in engaging with the United States unless the United States recognizes North Korea as a nuclear state. My deep hope is the president won't go down that path.
MARTIN: That is Kurt Campbell. He's chairman and cofounder of The Asia Group. Mr. Campbell, thank you so much for joining us.
CAMPBELL: Great to be with you. Thank you so much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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