Updated November 17, 2025 at 9:07 AM MST
SEOUL, South Korea — Japan has sent a senior envoy to China to reassure its government that Tokyo's policies have not changed, despite Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's suggestion that military action by China against Taiwan could justify a response from Japan.
China is piling political and economic pressure on Takaichi, less than a month after she took office as Japan's first female prime minister.
Takaichi's comments have seriously damaged the political foundation of Japan-China relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a news briefing, adding that Takaichi should retract her "wrongful remarks on Taiwan."
Mao also said that China's Premier Li Qiang had no plans to meet with Takaichi at the G20 summit in South Africa.
Asked by lawmakers on Nov. 7 about a scenario in which China takes military action against the self-governed island of Taiwan, Takaichi replied: "If warships are used, accompanied by the exercise of military force, then however you look at it, it could be a situation posing an existential threat to the country."
Japan's post-World War II constitution forbids it from waging war. But security legislation passed in 2015 allows it to defend itself, if it or a close ally, such as the U.S., comes under an attack that threatens Japan's survival.
China, meanwhile, will not rule out the use of military force if Taiwan declares independence, or in case of foreign interference.
China demands retraction
"Japan must immediately correct and retract its vile remarks," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said last week, "otherwise, Japan must bear all the consequences."
Takaichi has refused to retract her remarks, but has said she will no longer comment on specific hypothetical scenarios.
China's Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, used much stronger language in a social media posting: "the filthy head that recklessly intrudes must be cut off without a moment's hesitation," he wrote on X
Many took that to mean Takaichi's head. The posting was later deleted after Japan's government complained.
On Friday, China applied economic pressure. Its government warned that Takaichi's provocative remarks have made Japan less safe, and Chinese should not visit Japan anytime soon.
Strategic ambiguity or clarity?
While some observers fret that Japan under Takaichi may abandon its long-standing policy of ambiguity towards Taiwan, others see little change.
Takaichi's political mentor, the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was known for saying that a Taiwan contingency would also be a Japan contingency. But he said it after leaving office, and he didn't go into specific scenarios.
"I think it's pretty unlikely that we'll see Japan move away from this long-standing position of effective strategic ambiguity," says Adam Liff, a professor of East Asian International Relations at Indiana University Bloomington.
Liff says that given Taiwan's proximity to Japan's southwest islands, and its alliance with the U.S., a conflict over Taiwan would be a big deal for Japan's security, and for Japanese leaders of any ideological persuasion.
"Especially in peacetime, signaling that Japan cares, Japan has a stake in this without necessarily committing to any particular course of action," Liff says, "is one thing that I think successive leaders have tried to do in order to bolster deterrence. And this goes back decades."
Robust poll numbers, fragile coalition
But Keio University Professor Emeritus Yoshihide Soeya says Takaichi appears to be aiming to please a narrow political base of hardline conservatives, and possibly to validate her own political beliefs.
"Only a select group of supporters should be happy about this statement," Soeya says. "And I think Takaichi should know that. And in that overall context, it's a reckless statement for a Japanese Prime Minister to say this."
Approval ratings for Takaichi and her cabinet are higher than most of her predecessors, at nearly 70%.
But a weekend poll by Japan's Kyodo news agency found that about 49% of respondents think Japan should exercise its right to self-defense in case of a Taiwan conflict, while some 44% oppose it.
Soeya adds that Takaichi's remarks appear to squander the diplomatic gains she made just last month, when she met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea and agreed to keep ties between Tokyo and Beijing stable and constructive.
Takaichi has also said she wants to review and possibly revise Japan's core security strategy documents, and possibly its no-nuclear-weapons pledges as well.
But whether she has the political clout needed to overhaul decades-old policies remains to be seen.
Her ruling Liberal Democratic Party is in the minority in Parliament, and some observers think that the new coalition she has built to hold power could be unstable and short-lived.
Copyright 2025 NPR
