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New study shows promise for predicting harmful algal blooms before they happen

A cyanobacterial bloom (also known as a harmful algal bloom or blue-green algae) in the upper Brownlee Reservoir in 2024. Exposure to cyanotoxins through skin contact or ingestion can cause health effects ranging from mild skin irritation and upset stomach to more serious effects including trouble breathing or even death.
Idaho Department of Environmental Quality
A cyanobacterial bloom (also known as a harmful algal bloom or blue-green algae) in the upper Brownlee Reservoir in 2024. Exposure to cyanotoxins through skin contact or ingestion can cause health effects ranging from mild skin irritation and upset stomach to more serious effects including trouble breathing or even death.

A new study shows the potential for predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) in ocean ecosystems. The University of Washington study was recently published in the Journal Nature Communications.

Senior Scientist Brook Nunn says they found specific classes of bacteria that appeared to be indicators of a coming harmful algal bloom.

“"We found that the ocean's bacteria can detect small changes in the ecosystem which can serve as warning signals, if we know how to interpret them,” Nunn said. She is a professor of genome sciences at the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle.

“Once we see those changes,” she told Boise State Public Radio, “can we test another ecosystem and find the exact same peptides occurring? And that's what we did.”

It’s possible the same science could be useful in freshwater ecosystems, like the many Idaho lakes and reservoirs where algal blooms disrupt recreation opportunities and threaten public health. But saltwater and freshwater HABs are different.

Toxic algal blooms in Idaho are caused by cyanobacteria. Nunn’s research involved phytoplankton-based HABs. Darren Brandt owns north Idaho’s Advanced Eco-Solutions, a state water testing contractor.

It's definitely something that could be studied and could be potentially useful,” he said of the new research. “Right now the issue is less about being able to predict the bloom as much as it is about having the resources to just have a comprehensive monitoring plan.”

Blue-green algae found in Idaho is naturally occurring, and can be monitored using satellite imaging - with some ability based on color changes to predict when a bloom might be on its way to toxic levels. But even that requires long-term data to make comparisons, and more resources than water quality managers have.

Beth Spelsberg is the Senior Water Quality Standards Scientist for the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality.

“We go out based on reports; we don't have the time or resources to do a proactive type of monitoring right at this point,” she said.

When a potential bloom is reported, it takes days to collect a sample and get it tested at one of three lab operations statewide. Sometimes, Brandt said, wind can shift a potentially toxic bloom away from where it was reported to be.

“We have to err on the side of caution. Say we have a HABs bloom. We test it and say, ‘well, there's no toxins at that time,’ but it doesn't mean that there won’t be toxins a day after that occurred,” he said. “Just because we haven't detected it doesn't mean it can't happen.”

UW’s research is based on constant monitoring, well beyond what state scientists can do.

“We don't really we don't have the funding or resources,” DEQ’s Spelsberg said. “We would like to be able to do more research as it relates to cyanobacteria, but we are limited with our staff and time.”

Spelsberg said she has proposed expanding DEQ’s testing and monitoring of cyanobacteria, but any growth requires additional state funding. So they’ll continue to work to identify and notify the public of harmful algal blooms as fast as they can, and educate the public on the warning signs in Idaho waterways.

Nunn agrees that, right now, the need to constantly test water quality makes the process difficult to replicate in the real world.

“My hope is that you could build deployable assays where you could test it potentially daily using citizen science,” she said, likening her vision at-home COVID tests. Autonomous vessels could also be a good way to capture samples on a regular basis, she suggested.

But lots more research is needed; Nunn called this "the discovery phase" of understanding what parts of the sampling regime and methodology is feasible for long-term success.

“It’s a bear cat, it’s a lot," Nunn quipped. “I do think this is the first step in hopes of more research funding, and hopefully other groups that are interested to test their ecosystem.”

Troy Oppie is a reporter and local host of 'All Things Considered' for Boise State Public Radio News.

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