Early forecasts suggested that 2025 would have a very active fire season. But so far, things have played out a little differently.
Forecasts from earlier this year painted a dire picture: they predicted above average potential for major blazes in vast swaths of the West. But as we get into the homestretch of the season, the 4.2 million acres burned so far are around three-quarters of the 10-year average. That’s according to the latest four-month outlook and recent data from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise.
“I can tell you right now it was not as active as we were expecting,” said Jim Wallman, the predictive services meteorologist at NIFC. “And I think we're grateful for that.”
One of the key factors, he said, was an “unusually active” jet stream that brought cool, wet weather to the Northwest in recent months. Though it also means a delayed monsoon.
“The four corner states – Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico – were unusually active into mid-August because the monsoon was so weak,” Wallman added.
But there’s plenty of active fire season left. Parts of Idaho and Nevada are still expected to have above average fire risk in September, according to the outlook. Wallman said their weather models show rain may be on tap that could further temper fires, but there are still reasons to be ready for more burning.
“The models have struggled tremendously this summer,” he explained.
And it will take more than a single big storm to calm things down – especially if high winds come, according to Wallman. He also warned that there’s the possibility of increased fire activity on the East Coast, which could mean fewer resources available to assist out West.
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Boise State Public Radio, Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Northern Colorado, KANW in New Mexico, Colorado Public Radio and KJZZ in Arizona as well as NPR, with support from affiliate newsrooms across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and Eric and Wendy Schmidt.
