Despite declining childbirths, Idaho’s population continues to grow. Analysis of data from the 2024 Census shows the population, currently at about two million residents, will hit 2.4 million by 2034.
“Our growth rate is expected to be about four times as fast as the rest of the nation,” said Idaho Department of Labor Economist Sam Wolkenhauer at a Webinar on Tuesday.
He said that’s happening despite a falling birthrate, both nationwide and in the state.
“Families are smaller than they used to be in Idaho, as everywhere else,” he added. “That means that now and in the future, the main source of population growth in Idaho is going to be new residents moving into the state.”
More than a quarter of the state’s population is made of people who moved here since the 1990s.
While predictions show overall growth, Wolkenhauer said the senior population - comprising people 65 and older - is growing at a higher rate than younger residents.
“The 65 and older portion of the population is steadily gaining ground and making up a larger and larger share of the population. So in 2004, only 11% of the population was over the age of 65. And we think that by the middle of the next decade, that will be almost 20%.”
“In Idaho, there are 68% as many infants as there are 18 year olds,” he explained. Birthrates peaked in 2007 and that generation is turning 18 this year.
“Every year after this, we're going to get a smaller and smaller batch of young workers aging into the workforce.
Southwestern Idaho is expected to account for the bulk of the increase, Wolkenhauer noted, but growth is happening across the state. The increase is happening in urban areas, specifically, Ada, Kootenai and Canyon counties but rural areas are not shrinking. Boise is the single largest engine of population growth,
