The service, hospitality, food, agriculture and construction industries are sounding the alarm on the impact mass deportations of undocumented people could have on Idaho's economy.
A study released this month by the Idaho Alliance for Legal Workforce shows how heavily these industries depend on an illegal workforce and foreign-born workers, and the potential economic consequences of restrictive immigration policies.
Report author and regional economist Tim Nadreau said without undocumented laborers, productivity would fall dramatically – including a 45% drop in dairy output, a 22.5% reduction in agricultural production, 13% reduction in residential construction and 10% reduction in hospitality and dining services.
“If we were to see losses of those magnitudes, Idaho's gross state product would fall by just over $5.1 billion, roughly 4% of the state's total gross state product,” he said at a presentation on Friday.
“Not only would we lose the roughly 29,000 undocumented laborers, but we would lose another 27,000 Idaho jobs that depend on those within the supply chains,” Nadreau said.
He warned this would lead to an economic downturn similar to the 2007-2010 recession.
As state lawmakers consider further legislation to prevent employers from hiring undocumented people – like mandating the use of E-Verify, a federal website that tracks employees’ status – the alliance advocated for immigration issues to be addressed at the federal level.
“Policies that destabilize the existing workforce would cost Idaho about $5.1 billion in gross state product, $400 million in state revenue and nearly 30,000 American jobs,” said Rick Naerebout, the head of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association.
“To Idaho dairymen, those are unacceptable consequences to satisfy simply a political narrative,” he said. According to the report, 90% of workers on dairies are foreign born, with half estimated to be undocumented.
“Sadly, there are policies that have been introduced in this legislature that would be counterproductive to President Trump's vision for Idaho and for America,” Naerebout added.
Since coming into office, Trump has ramped up immigration raids across the country, largely targeting the Hispanic population. Last October, local law enforcement agencies, the FBI and DHS descended upon the small agricultural town of Wilder and arrested 105 undocumented people.
