On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised mass deportation of undocumented migrants and said he will deport one million people in his first year in office. In Idaho, analysts say this could have untold effects on the farming, dairy and construction industries that rely heavily on migrant labor.
Speaking on Idaho Matters, constitutional scholar and professor at College of Idaho McKay Cunningham said Trump’s promise may be more campaign trail bluster than actual policy, but should still be taken seriously.
“Logistically, it's unlikely that the incoming administration will be able to deport a million people in one year,” he said.
The American Immigration Council advocacy nonprofit estimates deporting one million people would cost about $88 billion dollars a year. The Pew Research Center says there are roughly 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S.
“How will [deporting them] affect the U.S. labor market, the food supply, and particularly in Idaho?" Cunningham asked, noting the economic impact would go beyond the cost of deportations. "How will it affect our ag industry?”
“It would be folly, however, to ignore the economic impacts, particularly with regard to industries that are very important in Idaho, including agriculture, construction, hospitality and milk,” he added.
About 40% of crop farmers in America are not authorized to work in the country, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
”We already have a labor shortage with regard to agricultural workers,” Cunningham said, adding 90% of workers in Idaho dairies are foreign born.
The census bureau estimates roughly 35,000 people live in the state without documents. A study from the University of Idaho estimates that 10,000 of them work in agriculture, 10,000 work in the service industry and 5,000 are in construction.
“Unauthorized immigrants’ spending contributes to Idaho’s economy with every purchase that they make in the state. Unauthorized immigrants in Idaho had an estimated $570 million available for spending in 2019,” the study states, adding they pay about $26 million in taxes each year.
