As the U.S. expands its attacks on Iran, and Iran retaliates with bombardments across the Middle East, the conflict grows concurrently with its impact on the global economy.
While the most immediate cost is in lives lost, the chokepoint that is the Strait of Hormuz – which normally sees as much as 20% of the planet’s petroleum and natural gas products flow across its waters – threatens energy prices across much of the globe.
And, according to an Idaho political scientist, those inflating gas prices also often inform how many Idahoans view the overall economy and, to a large part, their political leanings.
“Indeed, I embarked on a multi-year project to try to better understand the connection between prices and politics,” said Boise State professor Dr. Ross Burkhart, political scientist, researcher and author of “Priming the Pump? Gas Prices and Governmental Approval in the U.S. and Canada.”
Burkhart writes, “It turns out that gas prices have a mixed, but likely partisan and economically driven effect on the vote in the U.S., and largely a negative impact on approval of the U.S. ...executive (high prices, lower approval, and vice versa)."
And as our current unruly energy prices may end up complicating the task of the Federal Reserve, it's a pretty good bet that the crisis in and around Iran may have an extended impact on the American economy and with it, the 2026 election season.
“There’s the butterfly effect on the economy,” said Burkhart. “We’re likely going to feel the impact of this for, not just the short term, but maybe into the medium term – months from now.”
Burkhart visited with Morning Edition host George Prentice to talk about his research and the data that points directly to Idaho consumers and voters.
Find reporter George Prentice @georgepren
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