SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
We take a look abroad now with international correspondents across the globe, checking in with them on the economic impact of the Iran war. NPR's Rob Schmitz is in Berlin. Reporter Ashish Valentine is in Taiwan, and we begin with NPR's Charles Maynes.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: In Moscow, initial Kremlin outrage over the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and assassination of the country's supreme leader has given way to political triangulation, says Vladislav and Inozemtsev, a Russian economist and government critic now based in the U.S.
VLADISLAV INOZEMTSEV: It was one of the very few cases when the death of your close ally was immediately transformed into a source of some tangible gains.
MAYNES: The Kremlin has condemned U.S.-Israeli actions as a violation of international law but moved quickly to leverage the crisis, particularly when it comes to energy.
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PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: Meeting with top oil and gas officials in Moscow earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed them to use the new price reality in hydrocarbons to recoup losses from Western sanctions.
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YURI USHAKOV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: Meanwhile, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin offered a number of considerations towards ending the conflict in a phone call with President Trump last week. The U.S. has since issued a temporary waiver on sanctions on some Russian oil exports, first to India and now to the rest of the world - a reversal in U.S. policy that aids Russia's war chest for Ukraine, say critics. Yet the windfall for government coffers has been welcomed in Moscow, where the economic forecast and mood were otherwise grim, says the economist Inozemtsev.
INOSEMTSEV: Yes, it can provide a kind of lifeline for the Russian finances. But what is even more important - it changes the attitude of the Russian elites to what is going on.
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DMITRY PESKOV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged U.S. and Russian energy interests were aligned for now, but warned long-term global market stability depended on continued access to Russian energy. It's the latest sign that, as the crisis in Iran deepens, Moscow is betting on future sanctions relief from the U.S. and Russia's return as an essential energy exporter.
ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE: I'm Rob Schmitz in Berlin, the capital of Europe's largest economy - an economy that has had a roller coaster week. Germany's largest employer, automaker Volkswagen, announced this week it plans to cut 50,000 jobs inside the country because its profits have been cut in half in the past year. Also this week, the country's largest defense contractor, Rheinmetall, announced its sales are expected to grow by nearly half this year and that it's selling off its automotive parts division to focus on making more weapons. Now, neither of these announcements have anything to do with the rising cost of oil due to the war in Iran. But they're both indicators that Europe's largest economy is in flux, and spiking energy prices are complicating matters.
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KATHERINA REICHE: (Speaking German).
SCHMITZ: Germany's federal economy minister, Katherina Reiche, warned the nation's gas stations that the government would fight price-gouging by only allowing them to raise the price of gas once per day. The price of gasoline in this car-loving nation has increased by more than 20% since the war began, and Germans are now paying nearly $9 per gallon at the pump. But Claudia Kemfert, economist at the German Institute for Economic Research, told national broadcaster ARD that the country's new price-gouging law is missing the bigger point.
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CLAUDIA KEMFERT: (Speaking German).
SCHMITZ: "Rising prices at the pump are a wake-up call," said Kemfert, "about our excessive dependence on fossil fuels."
But Germany is moving away from fossil fuels, largely spurred by the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Over the past five years, the country's renewable energy share went up more than 10%. More than 55% of Germany's electricity is now generated by renewables - a big help in times like these, when the global price of oil seems to keep rising.
ASHISH VALENTINE, BYLINE: I'm Ashish Valentine in Taipei. Here in Asia, the undisputed leader in renewable energy is China. More than half of all new vehicles sold there are EVs or hybrids. And less than 5% of Chinese electricity is generated from oil and gas, although quite a bit more comes from domestically sourced coal. That sets it up reasonably well for the fuel shocks caused by the Iran war, says Dan Wang, an analyst at Eurasia Group, which helps businesses determine political risk.
DAN WANG: China's massive investment in green technology over the past 20 years is paying off really well. So the Chinese economy doesn't depend on oil and gas in a similar level as the other Asian economies.
VALENTINE: Combined with months of fuel reserves, she says, that means the average Chinese consumer hasn't yet noticed a hike at the gas pump. More concerning for China is what to do if the war goes on for longer than a few months. It's banned refined fuel exports to help preserve local supply. Over the next few years, Wang says China plans to even further insulate its energy supply from American policy decisions.
WANG: China has been developing new pipelines, investing heavily to connect with Russia and diversifying the sources of oil and gas to Central Asia.
VALENTINE: Here in Taiwan, which manufactures the vast majority of the world's high-tech logic chips, the semiconductor industry is heavily reliant on power generated from liquefied natural gas. In normal times, a full third of Taiwan's LNG imports comes from Qatar. But these aren't normal times.
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KUNG MING-HSIN: (Non-English language spoken).
VALENTINE: Taiwan's economy minister, Kung Ming-hsin, told reporters the island has secured enough gas shipments to meet demand through April. But in the event the conflict lasts longer, Taiwan and other Asian nations are seeking alternative suppliers, such as the U.S. and Australia.
SIMON: That was Ashish Valentine in Taipei, Rob Schmitz in Berlin and Charles Maynes in Moscow. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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