The More Guns In A State, The More Likely A Fatal Police Shooting, According To New Study

States with higher levels of household gun ownership have higher rates of fatal police shootings, according to a study this month from researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Northeastern University.

The study found a 3.6 times higher incident rate for fatal police shootings in the 10 states with the highest firearm availability (population 122 million in the period) versus that in the five states with the lowest firearm availability (population 122 million during the same period).

Researchers used data from the Washington Post’s “Fatal Force Database,” which showed 2,934 fatal police shootings nationwide from 2015-2017.

“What explains the differences across states in shootings is the fraction of people who are armed with a firearm,” said lead author David Hemenway, professor of health policy at The Chan School and co-director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center.

“The big explanation of … why police are killing people so much more often in states with lots of guns, is that the people who they are killing are armed with guns,” Hemenway said, adding that in states with high rates of gun ownership, police kill civilians 3-4 times as often as in states with fewer guns.

The exact rate of U.S. gun ownership is unclear. There is no federal firearm registration requirement or similar law that would enable tracking an exact figure of household gun ownership. Research suggests that some 30 percent of Americans own guns.

New Mexico was found to have the highest incident per capita of police shootings at a rate of 9.91 per 1 million residents. The state has a gun ownership rate of about 50 percent, according to a 2015 study in the peer-reviewed medical journal, Injury Prevention.

New York has the lowest rate of fatal police shootings at 0.87 per 1 million residents. Its gun ownership rate is thought to be about 10 percent.

“People should understand some of the benefits and costs of having an armed society,” Hemenway said.

Top 10 States

The Highest Fatal Police Shooting Rate Per 1 Million Residents, 2015-2017

1. New Mexico
2. Alaska
3. Oklahoma
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Nevada
7. Colorado
8. Wyoming
9. Montana
10. Louisiana

With The Lowest Fatal Police Shooting Rate Per 1 Million Residents, 2015-2017

1. New York
2. Rhode Island
3. Connecticut
4. Massachusetts
5. Michigan
6. New Jersey
7. Iowa
8. Pennsylvania
9. Illinois
10. New Hampshire

Guns & America is a public media reporting project on the role of guns in American life.

Copyright 2021 Guns and America. To see more, visit Guns and America.