Earlier this month, China announced plans to require approval for some antimony exports from the country’s Commerce ministry starting Sept. 15. The move comes as China’s antimony production has declined by about a third since 2020, according to Reuters.
The critical mineral is used in everything from ammunition to solar cells to its biggest use globally as a flame retardant.
“When we look at when they're having the export restrictions, we have to ask ourselves, is it because they're not exporting, or, you know, they're not even being produced?” said University of Idaho assistant professor of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Liang “Jimmy” Lu.
Increasing solar panel production is also eating up an increasing percentage of China's antimony supply, he said.
About half the world’s supply of antimony and 63% of what the U.S. imports comes from China. The United States gets another 18% of its supply from recycled e-waste, but there is no active domestic antimony mining.
Lu said some Chinese metals companies have recently shut down because it's harder to get ore for processing as the pace of mining has slowed over the last decade.
“They realized, 'hey, we have a lot of environmental issues with all those mines,' and also other issues. So they are decreasing those mining activities,” he said.
It’s not clear how the new restrictions will affect the volume of antimony allowed to leave China, but exports are expected to decrease. Lu said he didn't expect the news to have much of an immediate impact on the global market for antimony, but "you will have an impact on people's expectations about the future. And I think that's a much bigger concern."
The price of antimony has about doubled this year, but most of that rise predated China’s announcement.
Perpetua Resources would be the only antimony mine operator in the U.S. if it gets its Stibnite Gold project up and running in Valley County as planned in 2028, but that project remains under environmental review, and could face additional legal challenges from opponents. The company says it could meet about one-third of current domestic demand in its first six years, and China's move has Perpetua trying to pick up the pace.
"We are looking at things that we can do during construction to get antimony out the door sooner for some of these strategic needs," Jon Cherry, Perpetua's CEO, told Reuters.
Earlier this year, Perpetua announced it had received an invitation from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, EXIM, to pursue $1.8 billion in loans from the government through a program offered to companies which compete with China. In 2022, the U.S. Department of Defense committed spending $24.8 million to help Perpetua complete environmental and engineering studies needed for permitting at Stibnite.
Perpetua Resources stock jumped more than 30% in the days following China’s announcement, but has fallen slightly over the past week from its recent peak Aug. 20.
